DR. PAIN: KENTUCKY STUDY CDC RESPONSE

• Kentucky Study

• CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

“Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination”

“A case-patient – … with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and a subsequent positive NAAT or antigen test result during May 1 – June 30, 2021”

“Control participants - … with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 who were not reinfected through June 30, 2021” “Case-patients and controls were matched on a 1:2 ratio based on sex, age (within 3 years), and date of initial positive SARS-C0V-2 test (within 1 week)"

Total “case-patients” found were 246. Total “control participants” assigned 492 (double number of case-patients)

See TABLE 2 below from the paper for results.

Essentially, 20.3% of the “case-patients” and 34.3% of the “control participants” had also been fully vaccinated after their COVID infection.

From this data, the conclusion was that “Kentucky residents who were not vaccinated had 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with those who were fully vaccinated.”

MAJOR SHORTCOMINGS OF “STUDY” AND OBSERVATIONS WHEN TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION INFORMATION NOT INCLUDED IN THE DATA:

1. How did the authors determine that the control participants were not reinfected?

2. What was the outcome of the 246 case patients; were they hospitalized? Did they die? How sick did they get? Or were they the asymptomatic? This would seem to be the most important information that one would wish to know, namely, if I survive COVID but get a breakthrough infection, will I die or how sick will I get?

3. How many Kentuckians tested positive for COVID-19 during that 2-month period and what percentage did the case patients comprise of that cohort?

4. What percentage of the people with positive Covid tests during that 2-month time were fully vaccinated? It would be helpful to know this to compare with the percentage of those with natural immunity, that is the case patient’s percentage. Shouldn’t this be the real question?

5. The recommendation of the authors of this paper was that all Covid survivors, that is those who already had the infection and survived, should be fully vaccinated. How many Kentuckians would that be? That is, how many Covid survivors are there in Kentucky?

ANSWERS TO THE 5 QUESTIONS:

1. The authors do not tell us how they determined the control participants were not reinfected. This is a retrospective study and they give us no information in this regard.

Hence, there could have been a number of breakthrough infections with very little symptoms.

This is exactly what is admitted as their "second limitation" at the end of the paper. So, in other words, there could be significant error in their numbers.

2. The authors do not give the outcome of the 246 case patients; they do not even mention it. This is a significant shortcoming of this study.

It would seem to me that the most important thing to know is whether having a breakthrough infection as one with natural immunity would be very consequential.

For example, if I just had mild cold symptoms, why would I want to be vaccinated to avoid a few days of the sniffles?

3. From May 1 through June 30, 2021, a total of 17,905 persons tested positive for COVID-19 in Kentucky.

So, since there were only 246 "case patients" among that 17,905 persons, simply dividing 246 by 17,905 you get 1.37%. In other words, of all the patients positive for COVID-19 in that time frame ONLY 1.37% were those with natural immunity, or COVID-survivors (the “casepatients”)

4. Data from Kentucky show that at least 904 patients who were fully vaccinated had breakthrough infections from May 1 through June 30, 2021.

Dividing 904 by 17,905 gives 5.05% of the patient's positive for COVID-19 during that period were fully vaccinated. That is almost 4 times the number of people with natural immunity who had a breakthrough infection.

5. As of January 1, 2021 there were 266,323 residence of Kentucky who had survived COVID-19 infection.

The CDC is recommending that all of these people be fully vaccinated despite having natural immunity and having better protection against breakthrough infection than those who did not have natural immunity but were fully vaccinated.

Would it not be wiser to give the over 500,000 vaccine injections that would be given to Kentuckians who already have natural immunity, to people who have not been vaccinated such as those coming across her Southern border?